I like X-Plane, the company behind it, the high quality add-ons, the community and XPlanereviews. Your analysis is unbiased and correct in my opinion, and that‘s the scarry part. If Lamminar does not come up with a better overal scenery, X-Plane will keep on bleeding users to MSFS2020, especially this year, as more and more complex aircraft will hit the market.
I also fear that X-Plane is well on it‘s way to get back into it‘s niche it once was. The Mac and Linux Users have no serious alternative, so they will stay. I think also that a lot of people who like complex airliners will still feel attracted to X-Plane. But most of the people are visual beings, and in this regards X-Plane has lost the battle. Maybe they should strike a deal with Google, in order to get access to their wonderful Google Earth satellite imagery, letting users the choice between stock scenery and Google Earth streaming. I hope they will make it somehow.